Economic Trends 2024 | Archway Capital

Economy

Real GDP: +2.8% (Q3) DECREASING from +3.0 (Q2)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 111.7 (November) INCREASING from 109.6 (October)

Sales for Retail and Food Services: +$718.9B (October) INCREASING from +$716.0B (September)

U.S. Business Formation (Applications): +424,656 (October) DECREASING from 426,354 (September)

Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (November) INCREASING from 4.1% (October)

Total Non-Farm Payroll Employment: +227,000 (November) INCREASING from +36,000 (October)

Non-Farm Labor Productivity: +2.2% (Q3) INCREASING from +2.1% (Q2)

Price Indices (Inflation)

CPI (Annual): +2.7% (November) INCREASING from 2.6% (October)

Core CPI (Annual): +3.3% (November) UNCHANGED from +3.3% (October)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PCE (Annual): +2.3% (October) INCREASING from +2.1% (September)

Core PCE (Annual): +2.8% (October) INCREASING from +2.7% (September)

Note: Excluding food and energy.

PPI - Producer Price Index (Annual): +2.4% (October) INCREASING from +1.9 (September)

Note: Price to manufacturers. Price change prior to reaching consumers and business.

Current Rates

Federal Funds rate: 4.25-4.50% (December 18) DECREASING over 90 days

30 year bond yield: 4.65% (December 18) INCREASING over 90 days

10 year note yield: 4.50% (December 18) INCREASING over 90 days

2 year note yield: 4.35% (December 18) INCREASING over 90 days

1 month bill yield: 4.32% (December 18) DECREASING over 90 days

Housing

Case-Shiller National Home Price Index: +3.89% (September) INCREASING over 12 months

Single family housing starts: +1.31MM (October) DECREASING from +1.35MM (September)

Median sales price of houses sold: $420,400 (Q3) INCREASING 1.4% from $414,500 (Q2)

Consumer Health

M2 Money Supply (M1+semi-liquid assets): +$21.31T (October) INCREASING from + $21.22T (September)

Note: Substantial increase of 38% since Feb. 2020.

Disposable Personal Income (Monthly): +.4% (October) INCREASING from +.1% (September)

Note: Calculated as personal income minus personal current taxes.

Personal Savings Rate (Monthly): +4.4% (October) INCREASING from +4.1% (September)

Note: Calculated as personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.